A Markov switching analysis of contagion in the EMS

This paper applies the multivariate version of the Forbes and Rigobon (2002) contagion test, as proposed by Dungey et al. (2005a), to detect contagion effects in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS). Crisis and non-crisis observations are determined endogenously via a Markov-switching vector autoregression (MSVAR). We show that the MSVAR is suitable for this purpose, as it does particularly well in identifying the 11 realignments of the ERM. We examine whether Denmark’s rejection of the Maastricht Treaty and Italy’s competitiveness problems affected other EMS participants and find evidence for contagion.     

Neoclassical vs evolutionary theories of financial constraints: Critique and prospectus

Empirical models based on neoclassical theory predict that if investment is sensitive to current financial performance, this is a sign that something is ‘wrong’ and is to be regarded as a problem worthy of a policy intervention. Evolutionary theory, however, refers to the principle of ‘growth of the fitter’ to interpret investment-cash flow sensitivities as the workings of a healthy economy. In particular, I attack the neoclassical assumption of rational profit-maximizing firms. Such an assumption is not a helpful starting point for empirical studies into firm growth. One caricature of neoclassical theory could be “Assume firms are perfectly efficient. Why aren’t they getting enough funding?”, whereas evolutionary theory considers that firms are heterogeneous and that not all firms should grow. This essay highlights how interpretations and policy interventions can be framed by the initial modelling assumptions, even though these latter are often chosen with analytical tractability in mind rather than realism.     

Local trader profitability in futures markets: Liquidity and position taking profits

This study examines the profitability of local traders on floor‐traded futures markets. Using unique data from the period of floor trading on the Sydney Futures Exchange, local income is decomposed into liquidity and position‐taking profit components. Locals on the trading floor are found to make significant position‐taking profits. Moreover, the ability of locals on the floor to derive position‐taking profits is positively related to order‐flow related information, and negatively related to the presence of exogenous information, local liquidity profits and the length of a locals inventory cycle. Accordingly, this paper characterizes locals as active informed traders. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:1–24, 2010     

Does delaying service-failure resolution ever make sense?

Conventional wisdom suggests that service providers should respond to their failures as quickly as possible. Some research, however, points out that delaying resolutions may produce highly desirable results. The study here investigates these competing views by examining under which conditions an immediate or a delaying resolution produces more positive consumer responses in term of re-patronage and negative word-of-mouth intentions. Based on the concept of service separation, this research identifies an interaction effect between service separation (separated service, non-separated service) and response timing (immediate response, delaying response) on consumers' post-consumption intention. This research also finds that the relationship between service separation-response timing interaction and consumer response is mediated by consumers' negative emotions. This study contributes to refining our understanding of consumer psychology in service recovery. Practically, the studies also enable service providers to better allocate their resources to recover different types of services' failure.     

Fair trade new product development

Recently, there has been a significant increase in the market for fair trade products. However, there is a discrepancy between the stated purchase intention of consumers and their actual purchase behaviour with respect to fair trade. This article takes an operational and strategic view of this issue and argues that one significant reason for this lies in the limited range of fair trade products currently available. Next, a strategic framework for fair trade new product development is presented and explored. Finally, key operational criteria for fair trade product selection are discussed using a case study example to support the conclusions.     

Activity in futures: does underlying market size relate to futures trading volume?

This study investigates the determinants of trading volume in the futures markets and focuses on underlying market characteristics as an explanation for futures trading volume. Four major futures contracts traded on the Sydney Futures Exchange are investigated: the stock price index (SPI); the 90-day bank accepted bill (BAB); the 3-year bond; and the 10-year bond. An important outcome of this study is an identification of the fundamental drivers of trading volume in the futures markets, which have largely gone undocumented in prior research. We find evidence that futures trading volume is related to underlying market characteristics: the size of the Australian superannuation fund investments in equities (for the SPI), short term treasury notes (for the BAB), non-government bonds on issue (for the 3-year contract) and government bonds on issue (for the 10-year contract).     

Frailty models with applications to the study of infant deaths on birth timing in Ghana and Kenya

In hazard models, it is assumed that all heterogeneity is captured by a set of theoretically relevant covariates. In many applications however, there are ample reasons for unobserved heterogeneity due to omitted or unmeasured factors. If there is unmeasured frailty, the hazard will not only be a function of the covariates but also of the unmeasured frailty. This paper discusses the implications of unobserved heterogeneity on parameter estimates with application to the analysis of infant death on subsequent birth timing in Ghana and Kenya using DHS data. Using Lognormal Accelerated Failure Time models with and without frailty, we found that standard models that do not control for unobserved heterogeneity produced biased estimates by overstating the degree of positive dependence and underestimating the degree of negative dependence. The implications of the findings are discussed.     

刘小东:时间的证据

今年早些时候,《纽约时报》艺术评论家罗伯塔?史密斯写了篇长文章,指出美国许多美术馆明显偏好后极少主义,是一种"视野极端狭窄"的表现。这篇极富争议性的文章敦促策展人提高思想独立性,跳出观念艺术一统天下的模式看作品。读完文章,我发现她说得很对,西方不少美术馆在决定哪些作品可以进入当代艺术圣殿上的确存在趣味专制。刘小东的作品就很能说明这个问题。我放下报纸开始想,自己是不是应该站出来向我的纽约同事们为刘小东的绘画、思考以及历史意义正名。于是便有了本文。     

REAL OPTIONS: STATE OF THE PRACTICE

In the mid‐1980s, financial economists began building option‐based models to value corporate investments in real assets, laying the foundation for an extensive academic literature in this area. The 1990s saw several books, numerous conferences, and many articles aimed at corporate practitioners, who began to experiment with these techniques. Now, as we approach the end of 2001, the real options approach to valuing real investments has established a solid, albeit limited, foothold in the corporate world. Based on their recent interviews with 39 individuals from 34 companies in seven different industries, the authors of this article attempt to answer the question, “How is real options being practiced, and what impact is it having in the corporate setting?” The article identifies three main corporate uses of real options—as a strategic way of thinking, an analytical valuation tool, and an organization‐wide process for evaluating, monitoring, and managing capital investments. For example, in some companies, real options is used as an input into an M&A process in which rigorous numerical analysis plays only a small role. In such cases, real options contributes as a qualitative way of thinking, with little formality either in terms of analytical rigor or organizational procedure. In other firms, real options is used in a commodity trading environment where options are clearly specified in contracts and simply need to be valued. In this case, real options functions as an analytical tool, though generally only in specialized areas of the firm and not on an organization‐wide basis. In still other companies, real options is used in a technology or R&D context where the firm's success is driven by identifying and managing potential sources of flexibility. In such cases, real options functions as an organization‐wide process with both a broad conceptual and analytical core. The companies that have shown the greatest interest in real options generally operate in industries where large investments with uncertain returns are commonplace, such as oil and gas, and life sciences. Major applications include the evaluation of exploration and production investments in oil and gas firms, generation plant investments in power firms, R&D portfolios in pharmaceutical and biotech firms, and technology investment portfolios in high‐tech firms. While the approaches to implementation are quite varied, there appears to be a common path to the successful adoption of real options. The key steps of the adoption process are: (1) conducting pilot projects; (2) getting buy‐in from senior‐level and rank‐and‐file managers; (3) codifying real options through expert working groups, specialist training, and customization; and (4) institutionalizing and integrating real options firm‐wide. After citing best practices for each of these four steps, the authors close by predicting that a “network” effect and acceptance by Wall Street will serve as catalysts for more widespread corporate use of real options.